Why I am a Pessoptimist

Somehow there has come to be the notion that one's outlook on the world is a permanent fixture, unchangeable. In reality, everyone's (or at least most of our's) outlook is influenced by the conditions around us. And for me, generally speaking, I'm an optimist. I can usually find the white lining in the worst of situations. But I have to confess that I am a short term pessimist on the economy and even the clean tech / corporate sustainability industry, while still remaining a long term optimist.

The global credit crisis is having severe impact on clean tech, for example, in the last month:

1. OptiSolar lays off 190 (or half) of its employees.
2. Day4 Energy lays off 95 (or one-third) of its employees.
3. GreenFuel lays off 20 (or half) of its staff.

The list goes on and there is no reason to think this trend will right itself in a matter of months, perhaps even 3-4 years as Bill Gates has predicted. A lot of people will find themselves in tough situations.

So why am I still a long term optimist? Many folks are comparing this current economic crisis to the Great Depression, but I point out that we even recovered from that one! People are resilient and don't give up dreams and hope easily. And more specific to clean tech / sustainability, I believe this is a 30+ year trend. When I started working in this industry in 1990, it was clear even then that it would be a growth industry.

Today, we can expect fully $100 billion of the stimulus package to be targeting green industries and projects. Don't get me wrong, a lot of that money will be wasted (but it's one of the better areas to waste money if you insist on doing so). Sustainability has become a part of our vocabulary in business as well as with consumers. And as recently as a few months ago, the US Conference of Mayors forecast 4.2 million green collar jobs will be created over the next 30 years (10% of the total during that period). The reasons for growth are compelling because the industry is at the nexus of economic, defense and environmental challenges the solutions to which will truly create lasting value.